GlossaryGuide

Etym. Monte Carlo fallacy 1957, named for resort in Monaco famous for its gambling casinos. The fallacy of thinking that the probability of a particular outcome rises with the successive number of opposite outcomes.

Etym. simulation (n.) noun of action from past participle stem of simulare “imitate,” from stem of similis “like.” Meaning “a model or mock-up for purposes of experiment or training” is from 1954.

Definition

• A simulation in which random statistical sampling techniques are employed such that the result determines estimates for unknown values (Department of Defense Modeling and Simulation Glossary).

• A mathematical model using probability distributions to calculate the possible outcomes for a given choice of action. Such a simulation involves many calculations and re-calculations to yield a range of possible outcomes.